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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF · Preprint

DOI: 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433

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Records in this release that cite this source. A record can cite several sources.

Results

Values as the source printed them. Compare results only under compatible protocols, datasets and metrics.

Model or configurationMetricValueDatasetEvaluation
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.618 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.436 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.068 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.544 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.660 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.382 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L1000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.745 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench casp16-L3000)1.034 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.356 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.670 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench casp16-L3000)1.017 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.670 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)Boltz2 on PLABench casp16-L3000
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench chembl35)0.606 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Kendall tau (PLABench chembl35)0.211 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench chembl35)1.692 unit-unreportedPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench chembl35)0.098 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench chembl35)0.321 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench chembl35)1.248 unit-unreportedPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
Boltz2 (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench chembl35)0.302 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setBoltz2 on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.566 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench casp16-L1000)1.018 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench casp16-L1000)-0.008 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench casp16-L1000)-0.195 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench casp16-L1000)1.009 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench casp16-L1000)0.201 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L1000 (chymase)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L1000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.668 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench casp16-L3000)1.582 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.200 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.485 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench casp16-L3000)1.258 unit-unreportedCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench casp16-L3000)0.475 unitlessCASP16 ligand affinity series L3000 (autotaxin)DeepDTA on PLABench casp16-L3000
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench chembl35)0.551 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Kendall tau (PLABench chembl35)0.103 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)MSE (PLABench chembl35)2.165 unit-unreportedPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench chembl35)0.045 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench chembl35)0.153 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench chembl35)1.393 unit-unreportedPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (CASP16 and ChEMBL35 evaluation, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench chembl35)0.151 unitlessPLABench ChEMBL35 leakage-controlled test setDeepDTA on PLABench chembl35
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.680 unitlessDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)MSE (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.659 unit-unreportedDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.086 unitlessDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.330 unitlessDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.811 unit-unreportedDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench Davis-cold-drug)0.344 unitlessDavis cold-drug test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-drug
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Concordance index (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.800 unitlessDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)MSE (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.381 unit-unreportedDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Modified squared correlation (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.359 unitlessDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Pearson (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.625 unitlessDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)RMSE (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.617 unit-unreportedDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target
DeepDTA (retrained on Davis and KIBA, PLABench)Spearman (PLABench Davis-cold-target)0.521 unitlessDavis cold-target test set (PLABench)DeepDTA on PLABench Davis-cold-target

Models, benchmarks and other records

Models (7)

Configurations (12)

Benchmarks (1)

Protocols (9)

Datasets (9)

Evaluations (45)

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Claims, original sources and review scope · Release 2026-10-23-5347695500ed
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Artifact SHA-256
5fba9691f7d0777d19dabc66144e5c23d40e430de4919f97b92e4d50fb397281
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
Retrieved: 2026-10-11T21:28:04Z

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1.full.pdf
Source metadata
Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

Original source ↗

No field-specific location recorded

Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
Retrieved: 2026-10-11T21:28:04Z

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Code url
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22782934
Source metadata
Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

Original source ↗

No field-specific location recorded

Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
Retrieved: 2026-10-11T21:28:04Z

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Doi
10.64898/2026.09.17.752433
Source metadata
Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

Original source ↗

No field-specific location recorded

Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
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CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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3 values
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  • Values were read from the pdftotext (poppler 26.08.0) layout text layer, SHA-256 acc4a3c5deb4068748abc233a5aa74e1633747737f438eebccf7270d49a16328. The licence (CC BY-NC-ND) is respected by not archiving the PDF or its text in the repository.
  • Bold marking of the best value per column is not carried by the text layer and is not recorded.
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
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Publication status
preprint
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
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Retrieved at
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Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

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No field-specific location recorded

Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
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Review: date
2026-10-11
Source metadata
Leakage-controlled benchmarking reveals generalization limits of deep learning for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction

Original source ↗

No field-specific location recorded

Version: bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
Retrieved: 2026-10-11T21:28:04Z

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Release 2026-10-23-5347695500ed · Record review: source checked

Primary source retrieved and hashed for the 2026-10-11 microbial and interactions literature pass.

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Stable ID: lit-interactions-20261011-leakctl-source-wang2026

areas
molecular-interactions
contexts
research
url
https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.17.752433
artifact url
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1.full.pdf
version
bioRxiv 10.64898/2026.09.17.752433v1 (posted 2026-09-23); 30-page PDF
retrieved at
2026-10-11T21:28:04Z
artifact sha256
5fba9691f7d0777d19dabc66144e5c23d40e430de4919f97b92e4d50fb397281
doi
10.64898/2026.09.17.752433
publication status
preprint
licence
CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
media type
application/pdf
code url
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22782934
limitations
bioRxiv adds a per-request banner, so the PDF hash describes this one retrieval.; Values were read from the pdftotext (poppler 26.08.0) layout text layer, SHA-256 acc4a3c5deb4068748abc233a5aa74e1633747737f438eebccf7270d49a16328. The licence (CC BY-NC-ND) is respected by not archiving the PDF or its text in the repository.; Bold marking of the best value per column is not carried by the text layer and is not recorded.
review
method: source-hash-verification; method note: PDF re-downloaded; the per-request bioRxiv banner changes the PDF hash, so the pdftotext -layout text layer was rehashed instead and matches the recorded text-layer hash.; reviewer: claude; reviewer note: Claude review agent reviewer-mi-2, independent of the extractor lit-microbial-interactions; no human review claimed; date: 2026-10-11
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