CASP16 affinity accuracy is no better than the earlier D3R challenges
Finding:no-better-than-d3r of CASP16 binding affinity challenge
best CASP16 stage 1 results no better than the typical best stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48 (min 0.21, max 0.71). Source wording: "For affinity predictions, it seems clear that the best Stage 1 CASP16 results are no better than the typical best Stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48, with min/max of 0.21 and 0.71."
Affinity-ranking finding stated in the body text of the CASP16 assessment.
Evidence
Source checking verifies the cited claim or transcription. It does not establish independent reproduction.
Evidence table
Inspect claims, sources and review details
Trace each statement to its source and review. A context-only reference supports the record generally; it does not verify an individual field. Source checking does not reproduce an experiment.
One row per statement and cited source. Multiple citations are not independent evaluations. Shared locators are labelled explicitly.
6 evidence rows matching the loaded filters
| Property and statement | Original source and location | Review and provenance |
|---|---|---|
| Claimed field finding:no-better-than-d3r Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
| Source location Discussion Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
| Claimed value best CASP16 stage 1 results no better than the typical best stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48 (min 0.21, max 0.71). Source wording: "For affinity predictions, it seems clear that the best Stage 1 CASP16 results are no better than the typical best Stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48, with min/max of 0.21 and 0.71." Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
| Description Affinity-ranking finding stated in the body text of the CASP16 assessment. Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
| Relationship: subject uc-leadopt-20261022-benchmark-casp16-affinity Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
| Name CASP16 affinity accuracy is no better than the earlier D3R challenges Context-only references | Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 Discussion Version: Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038 | not individually reviewed No individual claim review recorded Audit detailsField: Source artifact SHA-256: Hash scope: Hash scope not separately documented; inspect source record |
Sources and history
Release 2026-10-22-1b7cf027e4f6 · Record review: source checked
1 source record and release history
- Assessment of protein-ligand pose and affinity predictions in CASP16 · Original source · Proteins, cover date January 2026; Europe PMC full-text XML snapshot PMC12750038
Technical metadata and extraction receipts
Stable ID: uc-leadopt-20261022-claim-gilson-no-better-than-d3r
- field
- finding:no-better-than-d3r
- value
- best CASP16 stage 1 results no better than the typical best stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48 (min 0.21, max 0.71). Source wording: "For affinity predictions, it seems clear that the best Stage 1 CASP16 results are no better than the typical best Stage 1 D3R result, which averaged Kendall's τ of 0.48, with min/max of 0.21 and 0.71."
- source locator
- Discussion
- review
- method: source-hash-verification; pdf-text-parse; independent-cell-check; rendered-source-visual-check; ai-assisted-source-review; method note: Re-retrieved all three sources and matched each pinned SHA-256. Re-rendered the Boltz-2 supplement with pdftotext -layout (poppler 26.08.0) and matched the text layer's recorded SHA-256. Re-read all 256 cells with a parser written for this review that does not import the extraction script, matching each result to its cell through its own source_locator, and separately read appendix tables 11, 12 and 14 from PNG renderings of PDF pages 29 and 30 at 160 dpi, and Ross Table 3 from the pinned XML markup. Checked printed value, numeric value, locator, metric concept, qualifier, direction, unit, uncertainty and the linked configuration, protocol and dataset, and that every N/A or '-' cell is recorded as missing with a reason.; reviewer: claude; reviewer note: Claude review agent, independent of the extraction agent; no human review claimed; reviewed at: 2026-10-22T13:40:00Z; artifact sha256: a1d7fdc52df61c4d75197f04be91b511b7d093d229d96a0815a11f95e350256b; retrieval url: https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12750038/fullTextXML; note: Independent review 2026-10-22: the quoted wording was matched against the pinned artifact and the locator checked.
Related records
- subject: CASP16 binding affinity challenge